analyzing alec baldwin’s first interview post fatal ‘rust’ shooting

the ‘rust’ shooting and expert opinion on baldwin’s choice to be interviewed

On December 2, 2021, Alec Baldwin participated in an interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, his first since he fatally injured cinematographer Halyna Hutchins on the set of his film ‘Rust.’ As the general public, legal community and media all rushed to weigh in on whether this appearance was a smart move for Baldwin or not, Mercury Analytics surveyed 400 U.S.-based respondents to see how Baldwin fared in the eyes of gen pop.

Baldwin claims that he was handed a ‘cold gun’ with no live rounds by his assistant director Dave Halls and that he pulled the gun out of his holster in preparation for a scene twice. According to Baldwin, the gun discharged a live round the second time he pulled it out of the holster and penetrated Hutchins’ shoulder. The round then traveled and hit director Joel Souza in the shoulder, but he ultimately recovered from his injuries.

In the interview, Baldwin spoke at length about the events leading up to the tragedy, his relationship with Hutchins and his experience handling firearms on sets in his 40-year film and television career.

Legal experts had contrasting opinions about the impact that the interview would have on Baldwin, who is currently being investigated for criminal and civil charges in connection to the shooting.

Neama Rahmani, former assistant United States Attorney, spoke to The Los Angeles Times about Baldwin’s interview, which she called a “mistake” because his statements to Stephanopoulos can be used against him in court. Lara Yeretsian, a criminal defense attorney who also spoke to The Los Angeles Times, had a different opinion about the interview and stated, “Though it probably didn’t help his legal case, it probably didn’t hurt.”

testing the impact of baldwin’s interview, Moment-to-Moment

dial-testing baldwin for favorability and believability

Q: As you watch this video, we want you to consider if what you are seeing and hearing makes you believe Alec Baldwin is MORE or LESS believable.

Moments when Alec Baldwin was more believable include when a statement made by Baldwin’s colleague citing safety concerns was read aloud by Stephanopoulous.

Moments when Baldwin was less believable include when he spoke about supporting a colleague on set who resigned over safety issues and about being willing to reallocate his own salary to providing better housing options for set members.

Across all respondents, negative statement ratings dropped on all metrics after respondents watched the interview, while positive ratings rose which indicates that the net effect of the interview was positive.

The key takeaway from our research is this: The interview had a net positive impact on Baldwin’s public perception among those who viewed the interview in its entirety.

Our dial-testing capability showcases the high points and the low points of the interview, touching on the broader impact of viewing a social media clip (either positive or negative) versus viewing an event in its entirety.

In our analysis, our ‘lift’ or ‘percentage change’ metric, which calculates the relative difference between two values and expresses this difference in a percentage, indicates that respondents’ likelihood to watch or go to Alec Baldwin’s movies after seeing the interview in its entirety increased by 41%, while respondents’ opinion that Alec Baldwin acted improperly decreased by 25%.

As shown in the graph below, the interview has positively impacted respondents and even influenced those who had previously felt that Baldwin had acted improperly on set.

While interviews on controversial events and subjects can pose a considerable risk, including opening up the subject to scrutiny and the circulation of curated clips out of context on social media, our study shows that Baldwin ultimately fared well among those who viewed the entire interview.

Public relations and media firms who handle crisis communications can enhance their approach by adding dial testing to their research toolkits.

methodology

Mercury Analytics conducted an overnight survey including dial-tests of ABC’s interview with Alec Baldwin post the ‘Rust’ shooting. This interview was published on December 2, 2021.

The thirty-minute-long interview featured Alec Baldwin discussing the events leading up to the tragedy, his experience working with Hutchins, the film’s cinematographer who he fatally shot, and his on-set safety training over his 40-year career as a film and television actor. 

Mercury’s study tested the video’s performance among a national sample of n=400 respondents aged 18+. Respondents were first asked a series of demographic questions followed by questions to help understand respondents’ current knowledge regarding celebrities in the news and whether or not they viewed each celebrity positively or negatively.

As participants watched the video, they moved a slider just below the video to the right the more favorable they were towards Alec Baldwin or the more believable they found him based on what they were seeing, or to the left the less favorable they were towards Alec Baldwin or the less believable they found him based on what they were seeing.

Before the close of the survey, respondents were asked post-exposure questions to assess their views on the video and their opinions of Alec Baldwin.

For more information on Mercury’s quantitative and dial-testing technologies, click here, and for more technical information about the study, please contact Jordan Kraft or call us at 202-386-6322 x 322.